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Ongoing Project: Modeling long-term trends in ice seasons of geographically distributed lakes in a changing climate

Nihar Samal (CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities), Don Pierson (Uppsala University, Sweden), Bruce Hargreaves (Lehigh University, Pennsylvania), Craig Williamson (Miami University, Ohio), Lars Rudstam, and other GLEON collaborators 

Long-term trends and variability in lake ice dynamics are related to changes in climate conditions. Changes in the duration and timing of ice cover are well documented effects of climate change that are expected to continue into the future. Simulations of ice conditions and duration are essential to understanding the mechanics through which ice cover potentially mediates the effects of climate on lake thermal structure and mixing and influences phytoplankton succession and trophic status of a lake. In this study, a simple, one-dimensional model, Simple Ice Model (SIM), from Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, will be applied to several lakes worldwide, including Oneida Lake, to predict the onset, loss, and duration of ice cover in a changing climate. The expected results of this study will lead to understanding the effects of climate change on lake ice phenology and implications for the physical, chemical, and biological structure of lakes.